The Caramel Tree Q4 plan

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The Caramel TreeQ4 2026 plan by Slice of the Pie
Reviewing as0 approvedExport
Prepared Sep 23, 2026 for Andy

Everything we want to ship for October, November and December.

One website, dressed three ways for the season. Ads, landing pages, email and SMS that all match it. Numbers first, then the creative. Click any item to see it big, then hit Approve or Needs changes and leave a note. Nothing goes live until you say so.

How to review

Put your name in the top right once. Every card has Approve, Needs changes and a comment box. Your choices save instantly and Jimmy sees them. Use the filters to look at one month at a time.

The short version

Where the store is, and what the plan does about it.

What we foundWhat it costsWhat we do
Traffic and conversion have fallen every month since May. Sessions 7,528 to 3,127, conversion 3.44% to 2.24%, orders 272 to 87 a month.Net sales went from $16.0K in May to $7.4K in September.Ads back on with 150 statics and 15 videos, 15 matched landing pages, and a site built to convert them.
Half of checkouts never finish. 325 abandoned checkouts in 90 days.About $24.6K started and lost in 90 days.Free shipping bar at $65, ship date and cost shown before checkout, abandoned checkout flow with the math.
Email is 0.45% of traffic. 3 campaigns all year, zero segments, winback never turned on, 3,400 checkout opt-ins never got a welcome.Klaviyo at 14% of revenue where 30% is normal for a gifting brand.5 flows, 24 campaigns, 12 SMS, all built and designed in the new theme, with a calendar.
December is 11 days. Dec 8 to 18 was 60% of last December, 402 orders.Last December did $55K with zero campaigns.Every month is dressed for the season so the site, ads and emails all say the same thing at the same time.
Corporate buyers exist and are handled by hand. 13 one-order buyers spent $528 to $2,840. The corporate page is unpublished and the menu links to it.Highest AOV in the store with no page.Corporate gifting page, a quote form, a corporate nurture flow and dedicated ads.

Full numbers with every source query in the audits. Anything that needs your sign-off is collected under Decisions for Andy.

Audits

Shopify, numbers based. Klaviyo, flow by flow.

Live pull from your Shopify on Sep 23, 2026. Klaviyo figures are from the Sep 15 pull and say so on the page.

Built on your store

The new site, running on Shopify. Not live yet.

Four draft themes on thecarameltree.com: the white base plus October, November and December. Real products, real cart, the flavor picker works. Open any link below to click around the real thing. Nothing changes for shoppers until we publish.

Base: white and gold

Year-round store with the caramel drip.

Preview on your store

October: Halloween

Plum and burnt orange, spiders and webs, order by Oct 28.

Preview on your store

November: Thanksgiving

Rust and harvest gold, blowing leaves, order by Nov 20.

Preview on your store

December: Winter Wonderland

Evergreen and frost, snow that builds up, Dec 15 countdown.

Preview on your store

Free shipping reads $75 everywhere until you approve $65. It's one setting. Order-by dates are one setting per theme.

Website

One white theme. Three seasons on top.

Same store, same structure. Each month gets its own wrapper: colors, hero, announcement bar, dates, decoration. Like a season pass, not a redesign. Every season now has its own live motion: spiders drop on silk in October, leaves blow and pile in November, snow falls and builds up in December. Open any page and flip the "Preview skin" pill.

Open the site

The experience, in motion

Recorded straight off the site. Nothing covers the buy button, it stops when the tab is hidden, and anyone who turns off motion on their phone gets a calm, dressed version instead. An "Effects on/off" switch sits bottom right.

Base: white and gold

The year-round store. Cream, ink, one gold hairline. Buy box on top, flavor picker, $65 free ship bar.

Open base

October: Halloween

Deep plum, burnt orange, Black Licorice up front, order by Oct 28 for Halloween.

Open October

November: Thanksgiving

Rust and harvest gold. Bring something better than a pie. Corporate gifting moves up.

Open November

December: Winter Wonderland

Frost, evergreen, gold, slow snow. Gift boxes and stocking stuffers, order by Dec 15 countdown.

Open December

Every page, every skin

Approve pages one at a time. Filter by season.

Landing pages

15 pages. Five per month, one per ad concept.

Each page says the same thing as the ads that point to it. Built on the same theme and skin as the store.

Meta ads

150 statics. 50 a month.

Every product you see is your real product: Ed's renderings and the photos already on your site. Where a background scene was built with AI it is labeled. Copy for every ad is under "Meta copy".

Motion ads

10 motion ads. Dip, lift, toppings.

Evergreen, run any month. Bold solid-color sets, slow-motion caramel, toppings that burst on. Every clip ends on Ed's real apple render, and four end on Ed's own poster designs. The motion in between is generated on Higgsfield and labeled.

All ten at a glance
Video ads

20 videos.

New Oct 28: 10 Izzy UGC ads (under Nov) cut from her real footage, each in a different style, captions and sound on, loaded to Meta paused for testing. The other 10 are seasonal clips animated from your real product stills, no captions burned in so we can test hooks. Model used is in the notes.

Email and SMS

5 flows, 24 campaigns, 12 texts.

Every design matches the site and its season. Flows show the trigger, the timing and each email. Campaigns are dated on the calendar below.

Open the email overview

Automation flows

Every email inside the flows

Campaigns

SMS

Calendar

When each email and text goes out.

Ships Monday to Wednesday, packed cold. Thanksgiving Nov 26. Order-by dates are proposals until you confirm them.

Full calendar view
Competitors

205 competitor ads and 10 site teardowns.

What Mrs. Prindables, Harry and David, See's, Goldbelly, Milk Bar and the rest are running right now, and what we took from it. Almost nobody is advertising caramel apples. Twenty good ads makes you the loudest brand in the category.

Decisions for Andy

Things only you can answer.

Everything below is written into the site, ads and emails as a proposal. Say yes, change it, or kill it.

What changed

Reviewed again before you saw it.

We ran a second pass on everything looking for anything that reads as AI or off-brand, and pulled it.

AreaWhat we did
ShopifyNew. The approved design is now built as 4 draft themes on your real store (base, Oct, Nov, Dec). One setting switches the season. Live store untouched until you say publish.
Motion adsNew. 10 evergreen dip-and-toppings ads on Higgsfield, each landing on Ed's real render. Strongest: Caramel Bath, Sugar Tornado, The Dip, Spiral Wrap.
WebsiteNew seasonal motion layer on every page and landing page. Base gets a caramel drip, October spiders and webs, November blowing leaves and a wheat line, December snow that builds up plus fairy lights. Preview switch tucked away on phones so it never covers a button.
StaticsEvery one of the 150 checked by hand. AI scenes that showed warped props, fake packaging or AI handwriting were replaced with studio versions using real product only. Copy scrubbed for anything that sounds machine written.
VideosCut 5 of 15 where the product changed color, labels garbled or snow looked like clip art. Trimmed one.
Email and SMSThanksgiving order-by moved to Nov 20 to match ads and site. Removed any line about one invoice or many addresses, and any "made by hand" claim. Swapped two hero images that looked like stock.
ClaimsNothing on any page says hand dipped, since 2008, family owned, guaranteed arrival, or shows stars or reviews. Those wait for your sign-off under Decisions.